Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Sunday 26 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 54160 (+2068) 957505 (+33893) 116201 (+22797) 787144 (+9028)
Italy 26384 (+415) 195351 (+2357) 63120 (+2622) 105847 (-680)
Spain 22902 (+378) 223759 (+3995) 95708 (+3353) 105149 (+264)
France 22614 (+369) 161488 (+1660) 44594 (+1101) 94280 (+190)
United Kingdom 20319 (+813) 148377 (+4913) 0 (+0) 128058 (+4100)
Belgium 6917 (+238) 45325 (+1032) 10417 (+295) 27991 (+499)
Germany 5873 (+113) 156418 (+1419) 109800 (+3000) 40745 (-1694)
Iran 5650 (+76) 89328 (+1134) 68193 (+1594) 15485 (-536)
China 4632 (+0) 82816 (+12) 77346 (+89) 838 (-77)
Netherlands 4409 (+120) 37190 (+655) 0 (+0) 32781 (+535)
Brazil 4037 (+367) 58997 (+6002) 29160 (+1505) 25800 (+4130)
Turkey 2706 (+106) 107773 (+2861) 25582 (+3845) 79485 (-1090)
Canada 2465 (+163) 45354 (+1466) 16425 (+956) 26464 (+347)
Sweden 2192 (+40) 18177 (+610) 1005 (+455) 14980 (+115)
Switzerland 1599 (+10) 28894 (+217) 21300 (+300) 5995 (-93)
Mexico 1221 (+152) 12872 (+1239) 7149 (+4522) 4502 (-3435)
Ireland 1063 (+49) 18561 (+377) 9233 (+0) 8265 (+328)
Portugal 880 (+26) 23392 (+595) 1277 (+49) 21235 (+520)
India 825 (+45) 26283 (+1836) 5939 (+443) 19519 (+1348)
Indonesia 720 (+31) 8607 (+396) 1042 (+40) 6845 (+325)
Peru 700 (+66) 25331 (+3683) 7797 (+301) 16834 (+3316)
Russia 681 (+66) 74588 (+5966) 6250 (+682) 67657 (+5218)
Romania 601 (+34) 10635 (+218) 2890 (+73) 7144 (+111)
Ecuador 576 (+0) 22719 (+0) 1366 (+0) 20777 (+0)
Austria 536 (+6) 15148 (+77) 12103 (+231) 2509 (-160)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 198410 (+6070) 2832784 (+88915) 756474 (+53099)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 197821 ( +3953) 2744554 ( +41325) 748374 ( +23447)
Mon 27 April 2020 201427 ( +3606) 2782187 ( +37633) 770306 ( +21932)
Tue 28 April 2020 204703 ( +3276) 2816357 ( +34170) 790703 ( +20397)
Wed 29 April 2020 207669 ( +2965) 2847299 ( +30942) 809573 ( +18870)
Thu 30 April 2020 210344 ( +2675) 2875249 ( +27950) 826945 ( +17372)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 4632 (+0) 82816 (+12) 77346 (+89)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 3611 ( +0) 81472 ( +0) 76759 ( +5)
Mon 27 April 2020 3611 ( +0) 81472 ( +0) 76763 ( +4)
Tue 28 April 2020 3612 ( +0) 81472 ( +0) 76767 ( +3)
Wed 29 April 2020 3612 ( +0) 81472 ( +0) 76770 ( +3)
Thu 30 April 2020 3612 ( +0) 81472 ( +0) 76772 ( +3)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 22902 (+378) 223759 (+3995) 95708 (+3353)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 21868 ( +97) 209604 ( +966) 89621 ( +727)
Mon 27 April 2020 21951 ( +83) 210444 ( +840) 90244 ( +622)
Tue 28 April 2020 22022 ( +71) 211173 ( +729) 90775 ( +531)
Wed 29 April 2020 22083 ( +61) 211805 ( +633) 91228 ( +453)
Thu 30 April 2020 22134 ( +52) 212354 ( +548) 91613 ( +385)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 26384 (+415) 195351 (+2357) 63120 (+2622)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 25226 ( +144) 186610 ( +851) 62434 ( +1849)
Mon 27 April 2020 25354 ( +128) 187370 ( +760) 64215 ( +1781)
Tue 28 April 2020 25468 ( +113) 188048 ( +678) 65925 ( +1710)
Wed 29 April 2020 25568 ( +101) 188652 ( +604) 67561 ( +1636)
Thu 30 April 2020 25657 ( +89) 189190 ( +538) 69120 ( +1559)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 20319 (+813) 148377 (+4913) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 19775 ( +318) 146362 ( +2624) 90 ( +1)
Mon 27 April 2020 20049 ( +275) 148715 ( +2352) 91 ( +1)
Tue 28 April 2020 20286 ( +237) 150815 ( +2100) 92 ( +1)
Wed 29 April 2020 20489 ( +203) 152683 ( +1869) 92 ( +1)
Thu 30 April 2020 20662 ( +173) 154340 ( +1657) 93 ( +1)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 54160 (+2068) 957505 (+33893) 116201 (+22797)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 54937 ( +1500) 917926 ( +13563) 110623 ( +5605)
Mon 27 April 2020 56274 ( +1337) 929991 ( +12066) 115993 ( +5370)
Tue 28 April 2020 57457 ( +1183) 940688 ( +10696) 121093 ( +5099)
Wed 29 April 2020 58498 ( +1041) 950141 ( +9454) 125894 ( +4801)
Thu 30 April 2020 59408 ( +911) 958474 ( +8333) 130378 ( +4484)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 22614 (+369) 161488 (+1660) 44594 (+1101)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 22271 ( +200) 161707 ( +590) 55101 ( +3435)
Mon 27 April 2020 22441 ( +170) 162203 ( +496) 58764 ( +3663)
Tue 28 April 2020 22585 ( +144) 162620 ( +417) 62671 ( +3907)
Wed 29 April 2020 22708 ( +122) 162970 ( +350) 66837 ( +4167)
Thu 30 April 2020 22811 ( +103) 163263 ( +293) 71281 ( +4444)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 5873 (+113) 156418 (+1419) 109800 (+3000)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 5825 ( +108) 150925 ( +486) 107440 ( +1599)
Mon 27 April 2020 5921 ( +96) 151342 ( +417) 108833 ( +1392)
Tue 28 April 2020 6006 ( +85) 151699 ( +357) 110040 ( +1208)
Wed 29 April 2020 6080 ( +74) 152006 ( +306) 111084 ( +1044)
Thu 30 April 2020 6145 ( +65) 152268 ( +262) 111983 ( +899)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 4409 (+120) 37190 (+655) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 4250 ( +48) 36522 ( +407) 205 ( +0)
Mon 27 April 2020 4293 ( +42) 36888 ( +366) 205 ( +0)
Tue 28 April 2020 4330 ( +37) 37217 ( +329) 205 ( +0)
Wed 29 April 2020 4363 ( +33) 37511 ( +294) 205 ( +0)
Thu 30 April 2020 4391 ( +28) 37775 ( +263) 205 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 6917 (+238) 45325 (+1032) 10417 (+295)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 6841 ( +104) 44224 ( +533) 10052 ( +119)
Mon 27 April 2020 6930 ( +89) 44700 ( +476) 10155 ( +103)
Tue 28 April 2020 7006 ( +76) 45124 ( +424) 10245 ( +90)
Wed 29 April 2020 7070 ( +64) 45501 ( +377) 10322 ( +77)
Thu 30 April 2020 7124 ( +54) 45836 ( +334) 10389 ( +67)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 2192 (+40) 18177 (+610) 1005 (+455)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 2238 ( +75) 17930 ( +408) 702 ( +14)
Mon 27 April 2020 2307 ( +69) 18314 ( +384) 715 ( +13)
Tue 28 April 2020 2371 ( +64) 18674 ( +360) 726 ( +11)
Wed 29 April 2020 2429 ( +58) 19011 ( +337) 736 ( +10)
Thu 30 April 2020 2482 ( +53) 19325 ( +314) 744 ( +9)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 524 (+30) 11273 (+381) 2126 (+182)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 505 ( +14) 11037 ( +183) 2315 ( +206)
Mon 27 April 2020 517 ( +12) 11202 ( +165) 2525 ( +210)
Tue 28 April 2020 528 ( +11) 11350 ( +148) 2738 ( +213)
Wed 29 April 2020 538 ( +10) 11482 ( +133) 2950 ( +212)
Thu 30 April 2020 547 ( +9) 11601 ( +118) 3159 ( +209)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 1599 (+10) 28894 (+217) 21300 (+300)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 1561 ( +13) 28020 ( +48) 20712 ( +197)
Mon 27 April 2020 1572 ( +11) 28061 ( +41) 20879 ( +166)
Tue 28 April 2020 1582 ( +10) 28096 ( +35) 21019 ( +140)
Wed 29 April 2020 1590 ( +8) 28126 ( +30) 21136 ( +117)
Thu 30 April 2020 1597 ( +7) 28151 ( +25) 21235 ( +98)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 25 April 2020 5650 (+76) 89328 (+1134) 68193 (+1594)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 5445 ( +31) 88428 ( +606) 70410 ( +1487)
Mon 27 April 2020 5473 ( +28) 88977 ( +549) 71787 ( +1377)
Tue 28 April 2020 5499 ( +26) 89474 ( +497) 73058 ( +1270)
Wed 29 April 2020 5522 ( +23) 89923 ( +449) 74225 ( +1167)
Thu 30 April 2020 5542 ( +21) 90328 ( +405) 75294 ( +1069)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.